Are banks 'killing' the Property Market?

Has it ever struck you just how many people are property experts when you mention that you are thinking of buying or selling a property?

These well-meaning advisers – with opinions that are certainly influenced more by hearsay than knowledge – will say that now is not the time to be involved in the property sector and, as a rule of thumb, they think they’re right.

People with a little more knowledge, like estate agents, will say it’s an excellent time to buy but, if you want to sell, make sure that you’ve priced your house correctly, particularly if it falls into the upper price brackets.

Do estate agents give you a true value? Never. They give you a ‘gut-instinct’ based value that is determined by what you want and what they think they can get. If the house is slow to move, then the price is too high. It’s a pathetic basis for determining a true value.

Bankers (responsible for lending the money) often won’t say a word – except among friends. And the sad fact of the matter is that bankers are the ones who dictate the state of the property market. If they lend money, sales boom. If they don’t sales dwindle.

In years gone by, when the cyclical swings were not as great as they appear to be today, banks would look for value in a property and would grant a bond based on the value that they attributed to it.

You would expect that pattern to be cast in stone and that, today, if you were to go to four different banks, you would get a very similar valuation from all four of them.

And that’s where you’d be so wrong. Different banks have different criteria and they use different yardsticks to adjudicate value. Ask for a value from a banker and you’ll get four very different ones.

This, naturally enough, makes it incredibly difficult for property owners and for estate agents who, for instance, put in an application for a bond (based on a fair purchase price) to all four of the banks and find that some banks come back and say there is “insufficient value” in the property to the grant the bond amount applied for.

The more expensive the home, the greater variation there is. And much of that valuation process appears to be purely subjective rather than scientific.

Question a bank about the details of why the value is so low and they will come up with all sorts of subjective reasons: “It’s not the right property to be buying in this market” or “The property is over-priced for the area” or “The owners have over-capitalised and want too much money” or the “The asking price is simply too high for the home” or, mostly importantly “We won’t grant a loan of that size against that property”..

Forget the fact that the buyer has a right to decide what amount he or she is prepared to pay for the property in question. Forget the fact that the bank won’t pay a penny of the excessively exorbitant interest rates that are calculated over the next 20 or 25 years. That’s the buyer’s responsibility.

Just remember banks borrow money from the Reserve Bank at 5,5% and charge the money they’ve borrowed at prime of 9% so banks make 3,5% gratis before lending a bean. It’s iniquitous.

If that’s not bad enough then we have the other factor: banks can now stipulate what a house is worth by making a snap, subjective and often unfair value judgment.

I watched one of these valuers at work on the property that I currently rent. He had a measuring tape (on wheels to calculate the perimeter of the house) that he wheeled past the plants (not next to the house) to give him a rough idea of the outer boundary.

Then he walked through the house, taking no more than five minutes to survey the lot. Then he swaggered through to my office demanding that I drop what I’m doing and immediately let him out.

If he was here for five minutes then that was a lot.

I went outside with him and waited next to his run-down white jalopy while he searched for an address in a map book.

After I had spent more time looking at him than he had spent looking at my house, I tapped on his window and said, rather sharply, “Listen, bud, I’m busy so why don’t you leave find directions somewhere else rather than just wasting my time.”

He drove away mumbling – and I didn’t give a fig.

His few minutes here resulted in a decision worth more than a million rand. It’s totally absurd and certainly a deeply unprofessional way to determine the value of a property.

His visit was typical of all those others I have experienced when valuators come to value a house. In the course of my lifetime I have bought and sold more than 20 properties and I have never had a different experience from a bank’s valuation man.

So I was hardly surprised to read the comments from Ronald Ennik, an executive director of Leapfrog Property Group who says that banks are damaging the property market by continuing to value properties “too conservatively”.

He’s quite right. I would take it further than Ennik did: I would say that banks are killing the property market and they seem to be doing so with a smile on their corporate faces and it makes me sick.

Apart from making it really hard to qualify for a bond, the banks are now deciding the value of property and what it’s worth. How unfair is that?

Homebuyers’ dreams are smashed by a cretin who spends less than ten minutes looking at a property. The same cretin who cannot even read directions in a map book.

And the bank he represents accepts his word as gospel – the final say on what a property is worth. It’s bizarre.

Surely there must be a less subjective way of determining property values?

Professional land valuers (like my cousin) will tell you that there is a lot more that goes into compiling an accurate and realistic property value than just wandering around with a tape measure and a pair of reasonable eyes.

And it is these professionals that should be doing the valuations for banks and it is their figures that should be the basis for any bond regardless of which bank it is that’s granting the money.

Property values must surely be based on measurable criteria and not on value judgments. Value judgments are not a valuation, they’re a guess. And I wish that Standard, Absa, Nedbank and FNB would remember that.

And then stick to lending money based on the risk profile of the individual and not on whether they approve of the purchase he or she is making.

I also wish that Capitec and African Bank (and others) would step into the market and shake it up completely by adopting a more fair and reasonable approach.

Because as things go mortgage-lending banks are just a very motley bunch.

*Hartdegen writes a regular column for Property24.com. The content of his columns constitutes his personal opinion and doesn’t pretend to be facts or advice.

Home Buyers to spend HALF of take-home pay on their Mortgage

Economists said there is ‘no doubt’ that Bank of England interest rates will return to around 5 per cent - possibly even higher - from their current historic low of just 0.5 per cent.

If the current profit margins are maintained, it means mortgage rates will be pushed up to 8 per cent, according to Capital Economics.

It would see mortgage payments at the start of a new mortgage increase from 34 per cent of average take-home pay to 51 per cent for those buying a new home, it said.

It equates to more than £12,000 being spend on their annual mortgage repayments, as the figures are based on average take-pay home of £23,800 - or a gross salary of £31,500.

For existing borrowers – including those remortgaging – it will reach a record 42 per cent or £10,000.

Paul Diggle, an economist at Capital Economics, said: “The record level of outstanding mortgage debt relative to earnings suggests that existing mortgage borrowers would fare even worse relative to historical norms.

“And with the share of outstanding mortgages on variable rates of interest the highest in at least a decade, there is good reason to think that a sustained tightening in monetary policy would be passed on to borrowers quickly and in full.

“Were average mortgage interest rates for existing borrowers to reach 8 per cent, their average mortgage payments would rise to an all-time high of 42 per cent of take-home pay.

“Yet the additional interest rate risk that variable rates expose borrowers to can be overstated. The fact that most fixed rate periods in the UK are just two or three years long means that even most borrowers on fixed rates are exposed to a high degree of interest rate risk.”

However, he added the Bank Rate is likely to remain at its current level during this year and next.

“If that happens, it would no doubt add to the pressures on mortgage borrowers, but the house price correction that we expect over the coming years will be driven largely by the deteriorating labour market and the sheer unaffordability of housing,” he said.

It comes amid a rise in the number of people being evicted from their homes as lenders warn they will not be as tolerant about borrowers failing to keep up with their mortgage payments.

Earlier this month, the Council of Mortgage Lenders said 9,100 people had their homes repossessed during the first three months of 2011, up from 7,900 during the last three months of last year.

During the recession, lenders were told by the Government to use repossession only as last resort. But as the Government’s austerity measures take hold amid possible rises in interest rates, more home owners are expected to fail behind in their loan repayments.

Generation X leads property recovery

Generation X will lead the property market to recovery in the US and in SA. A more positive sentiment has returned to the market in the US as well as in South Africa, especially among professionals who can afford to take advantage of the current market conditions.

A report by an American company, John Burns Real Estate Consulting, revealed that of the 10 000 buyers and potential buyers they surveyed in 27 metro areas throughout the US, between 85% and 89% said that they felt now was a good time to buy a home and most felt optimistic about a new home purchase.

There has been a marked increase in activity in both the local and international property markets in the first quarter of 2011; however recovery in the global market continues to be slow as countries are experiencing different rates of recovery depending on the various economic policies they have in place.

In the US market, for example, the unemployment rate has reduced and the US stock exchange has rebounded massively since 2009. Positive property statistics have been reported with an increase in transaction volumes, especially in existing home sales and there continues to be a strong demand for distressed properties.

As with the case in the US, South Africans are currently seeing more realistic property pricing and are experiencing the lowest interest rate in the last 38 years. This has had an influence on the market and has contributed positively to the increase in property transactions. Added to this, realistic house prices and interest rates have also opened up the property market to people who could not afford to buy a house five years ago.

Around the world the Generation X population, which consists of adults between the ages of 31 and 45 who are generally well established in their careers, are looking to get their foot in the property-ownership door. According to real estate experts, these potential property buyers are most likely to decide that given the current market conditions, now is a good time to purchase a property. The Generation X market segment makes up 32% of the property-buying population in the US. While they are not the largest population-buying group, they are definitely the most active. In contrast Baby Boomers in the US, who make up 41% of the property-buying population, are still trying to make up losses in their savings and investments due to the recession conditions of the last few years and are more cautious in their buying decisions.

Statistically the population demographic in South Africa looks slightly different; Baby Boomers make up a much smaller percentage of the population than Generation X. Between the years 1950 and 1965 there were 13,5 million births in South Africa (Baby Boomers) compared with the 18,74 million births (Generation X) between 1965 and 1985.

However, when it comes to buying population, South Africa has many similarities to the US. According to John Loos, FNB Home Loan Strategist, the most noticeable increase in the property market buying share in South Africa was among the Generation X group who made up 28,1% of the total purchases in the first quarter of this year. This is compared to the Baby Boomers whose buying share increased to 21.17% of the total purchases in the first quarter of this year.

Younger buyers have also made their mark on the property market recently and it seems that Generation Y will not be outdone by their predecessors. Loos says that information from Deeds Office data on individual transactions revealed that in the last four quarters, 15.3% of first time buyers were under the age of 30.

Overall market confidence has improved and we have seen a higher number of first time buyers in the first quarter of 2011 than during the last quarter of 2010. It is clear that it is the younger professionals who are leading the property market recovery both in South Africa and abroad. Although we may still have an interesting road ahead of us in terms of full market recovery, things are definitely looking up for property markets around the world.

*Peter Gilmour is the Chairman of RE/MAX of Southern Africa

UK's most expensive flat sold for £135.4 million

The UK’s most expensive flat has been sold in London for £135.4 m.

Prices for a one-bedroom apartment at One Hyde Park start at £6 million Photo: BLOOMBERG

The buyer of “Flat a” at the One Hyde Park development is understood to be a Ukrainian who purchased the penthouse in cash in 2007.

The new owner is thought to be spending up to £60 million on interior work after receiving the apartment with bare walls and no amenities.

The Ukrainian used an offshore company called Water Property Holdings to buy the flat, which covers the top three floors in the Richard Rogers designed complex next to Knightsbridge.

The complex, built by a development group led by the Candy brothers, the upmarket property investors, has become the most expensive residential development with almost £1bn of sales transacted across 45 apartments.

The scheme finished in January and almost all the apartments have been bought through offshore trusts.The law firm used in the purchase is based in Russia and Ukraine. There is no mortgage linked to the property and the identity of the buyer is covered by confidentiality clauses with Project Grande (Guernsey) Limited, the developer.

Home loans - applications up 36%

Home loan applications last month reached their highest level in three years according to mortgage originator ooba. It says that home loan applications in March were up by 36% compared to the average monthly figure for last year.

However, ooba points out that home loan applications remained depressed and were almost 40% lower than those recorded at the peak of the property boom in 2007.

According to ooba, the average price of houses increased from R850 864 last year to 860 492 in the first quarter of this year.

Saul Geffen, ooba’s chief executive says that the results are both surprising and positive because the property market had been floundering for at least two years.

He says that house prices were not expected to rise this year so the increase recorded in the first quarter went against forecasts made by property analysts.

However, Geffen says that it will be necessary to wait until next month to see if the spike in loan applications is a sign that the property market is improving.

Geffen says that the value of home loans granted in March was the highest since October 2008 and the higher value of home loan applications is expected to continue for the rest of this year.

He says that the increase in the number of applications for a home loan may be a result of lower interest rates that make buying a property now particularly attractive for people in the affordable housing sector.

The average size of loans granted by the bank was 7% higher in the first quarter of this year at R725 973 compared with the same period last year.

The average deposit as a percentage of the purchase price dropped by 23,9% to 15,6% equivalent to R134 519.

The average deposit as a percentage of purchase price was 19,9% in February and 14,7% in January.

SA recovery still on track despite Global Shocks

South African consumers can find some reassurance in the fact that, despite the serious shocks seen around the globe in the first quarter of the year, the economic recovery underway in South Africa is still on track and growth prospects remain positive.

We have experienced some unexpectedly serious shocks in recent months, such as the tragic earthquake and tsunami in Japan and political strife in the Middle East and North Africa, exacerbated by rising oil and food prices, further debt bailouts in Europe and concerns over tightening fiscal and monetary policies in many countries. All of these have negative consequences for economic growth, and have combined to spark uncertainty around the consequences for the global economic recovery, and in turn on South Africa’s own recovery. on the positive side, we believe that none of these threats has so far been substantial enough to derail South Africa’s growth path this year. In fact, we have kept our GDP growth forecast for 2011 unchanged at 3.7%.

Although we have not yet seen all of the negative fallout from the economic and nuclear disaster in Japan, that country contributes only 9% of global GDP, 4.5% of world imports and 5% of world exports, making it too small to cause more than a temporary “blip” in the global economic upturn.

Although it is the world’s third largest economy, we don’t see Japan as a ‘game-changer’ for the global economy,” he observes. “Its impact is likely to be relatively limited, and in a few months’ time we should start to see a positive growth momentum generated by rebuilding there.

Meanwhile, the political strife in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has important implications for emerging market governments everywhere.

The countries so far hit by the unrest – like Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain and Syria, among others – are too small to slow down the global economic rebound. However, should the turmoil spread further in the Middle East and disrupt oil supplies, serious consequences could be felt. For now, we know that poverty and inequality is rife in many emerging markets. Other emerging market governments (especially autocracies and poorly performing democracies) could learn some valuable economic policy lessons from the uprisings to date. These include:

• - Making growth, employment, poverty reduction and wealth redistribution even higher priorities;
• - Placing special emphasis on price stability and improving efficiency in government delivery;
• - Boosting food production to improve self-sufficiency; and
• - From a global perspective, ensuring fast growth is not limited to China and India.

Turning to China, the Chinese government is “very much aware” of the impact the MENA uprisings could have on its own people. So even though the rest of the world is concerned about tighter monetary policy choking off growth there, it is unlikely that the Chinese economy will experience a sharp growth slump. The policy balancing act between containing inflation and stimulating growth is a delicate one that so far the Chinese government has proved to be very good at, and this is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. We don’t see Chinese growth falling off a cliff, despite their ongoing policy tightening, although it is gradually slowing from very high levels.

Some of China’s economic slowdown is being offset by the US, where the strength of the recovery continues to surprise to the upside. For example, the March Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and Leading Indicator show the manufacturing sector and wider economy continue to rebound.

All this is good news for South Africa’s growth prospects, as the global economic recovery underpins our own. The rand has stayed surprisingly strong, helping to cushion the inflationary impact of higher oil and food prices. this is due to a number of factors: still structurally strong growth in emerging markets; high commodity prices; a healthy current account balance; our relatively high interest rates; and a strong fiscal position.

I don’t expect any of these factors to change significantly any time soon, which is why the rand is likely to stay relatively strong on a trade-weighted basis in the short term. Our budget deficit for the current fiscal year is likely to come in better than expected, our interest rates remain relatively high (they may start rising from late this year or early next year), the current account could deteriorate somewhat as imports rise into the recovery, but commodity prices should stay well supported over the longer-term.

The main concern remains our lack of progress in raising our growth levels structurally, from the current 3-4% to 6-7%, closer to the other BRICS members. We are expecting 3.7% GDP growth for 2011 and 4.0% for 2012. There are several measures we believe government must focus on to improve our growth prospects: lift SA’s relative competitiveness by encouraging a more competitive and productive labour force; increase infrastructure investment; improve service delivery (especially education); preserve a business-friendly environment to encourage private sector investment and continue to focus on keeping inflation low.

*Johann Els is a senior economist at Old Mutual Investment Group SA (OMIGSA).

Rental Property to improve this year

While data availability for the South African rental market is somewhat sparse, available indicators suggest some improvement in the fundamentals driving the rental market, the FNB property barometer indicates.

"It is difficult to determine the level of rental demand, but we believe that the current economic and financial times may have led to some improvement in the demand side of the rental market too," said FNB property strategist John Loos.

He said household sector financial pressure could be a positive factor for the rental market, because it could increase the short-term appeal of renting for a certain group of financially stretched households.

The risks of interest rate hikes later in 2011 were also believed to be a positive for rental demand, as this could lead to some more cautious would-be home buyers adopting a "wait and see" approach, remaining in the rental market for longer and supporting rental demand.

"Our home-buying survey respondents suggest that, although having declined significantly since 2008-09, the percentage of home sellers selling in order to downscale due to financial pressure remains high at about 22%, and many of these sellers move into the rental market," Loos said.

As to how much of the rental market's performance was due to supply factors and how much due to demand-side forces was debatable, Loos said. "We believe that there are elements of both, particularly on the supply side due to weak buy-to-let buying in recent times. The net result, though, appears to be one of mild rental market strengthening through 2010."

Using data from Rode and Associates regarding flat rentals, it would appear that at least the flats component of the rental market had responded, Loos said.

"By major city, while one saw no fireworks yet, our calculations of flat rental averages per major city showed a broad increase in market rental inflation rates since the 2009 slump. The two-quarter moving average for Johannesburg showed the most impressive increase of 16.2% year on year as at the fourth quarter of 2010, while Pretoria showed the slowest rate of increase of 5.5%," he said.

More first time home buyers show confidence in market - FNB

There were more first time home buyers in the first quarter of 2011, indicating improved confidence in the property market, FNB Home Loans strategist John Loos said on Wednesday.

"The increase in first time buyer demand relative to the overall market demand is a good confidence indicator due to the greater degree of flexibility that an average first time buyer has in terms of timing his/her entry into the market," Loos said in a statement.

He said this reflected "improved new buyer confidence in lagged response to a dramatically improved interest rate environment since 2008".

It also showed improving confidence by the banks offering home loans.

First time buyers made up 22 percent of total buyers in the first quarter of the year, compared to 17 percent in the previous quarter.

"This percentage now compares favourably with the percentages recorded around late-2006, although the absolute volume would still be significantly lower than then because the overall market volumes are considerably lower these days compared to then," Loos said.

The "ageing buyer" trend seen in recent years was being reversed as a result of the improved interest rate and credit environment, and the resultant emergence of a more significant group of first time buyers.

Loos said using Deeds Office data on individuals' transactions, it was estimated that in the four quarters up to and including the first quarter of 2011, 15.3 percent of total buyers were aged 30 and below.

This was up from 14.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010, and even higher than the low point of 11.4 percent in the third quarter of 2009.

Loos said the most noticeable increase in market share was among the 31 to 40 years age group -- making up 28.1 percent of total buying in the first quarter of 2011.

This was up from 21.8 percent for the four quarters up to the third quarter of 2009.

The 41-50 year age increased its share of total buying from a 17.7 percent low as at the third quarter of 2008 to 21.7 percent as at the first quarter of 2011.

The 50-plus age group had seen its share drop from 48.8 percent as at the second quarter of 2009 to 35 percent as at the first quarter of 2011.

Loos warned potential first-time home buyers to be aware that inflation could rise, leading to increasing interest rates, so they had to be sure that they could absorb any increases.

"... Three percentage points [from prime rate of nine percent to a rate of 12 percent] would mean that on a bond amount of, say R700,000 at prime rate, the monthly instalment would increase by about R1410 per month."

He also reminded buyers to take into account above inflation increases in municipal rates and tariffs "which have become a far more significant property-related cost in recent years".

Home owners 'run for cover' ahead of potential rate rise

Home owners are ‘running for cover’ ahead of a potential rise in interest rates by locking into fixed rate mortgages, experts said yesterday.

The Bank of England is widely predicted to increase interest rates from their current level of just 0.5 per cent to help combat rising inflation.

Brian Murphy, of mortgage brokers Mortgage Advice Bureau, said: “The stand-out trend in the mortgage market at present is the increase in the number of rate-wary borrowers remortgaging onto fixed rates.

“People know that rate rises are coming and they are locking in now before fixed rates move higher. Essentially, borrowers are running for cover.

“Consumer confidence is in tatters and until prospective buyers feel safer financially the mortgage and property market will remain stuck in a rut.”

As much as 80 per cent of mortgage borrowers opted for a fixed rate deal in February.

It comes as new figures from the Council of Mortgage Lenders show mortgage lending stalled last month at £9.5 billion, which is broadly in line with the previous month’s £9.48 billion.

Bob Pannell, chief economist at the CML, said: “There is little in the latest batch of market data that would cause us to revise our market forecasts for 2011, and nothing that alters our underlying view that this is going to be a challenging year for households and the housing market. The housing market remains stuck in a rut.”

Residential demand strengthens further in the 1st Quarter of 2011

But despite stronger demand, the supply-demand imbalance appears to have deteriorated.

From a property owner/investor's point of view, one would typically want to see a strong market, which implies that demand is strong relative to supply of residential stock.

This relative shortage of residential stock would then lead to solid capital growth of the asset, a strong contributing factor to total financial return on one's property. Unfortunately, the past few years have not seen any meaningful capital growth, due to generally weak demand relative to supply.

In the past two quarters, the FNB Estate Agent Survey once again began to show estate agents perceiving strengthening housing demand, which may be largely seasonal as is customary in the summer season, but which may also be partly due to two further interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank (SARB) late in 2010.

So, from an agent residential demand activity rating of 5.66 (scale of 1 to 10) in the 3rd quarter of 2010, the level has increased to 6.07 in the 1st quarter of 2011. The agents surveyed in the 1st quarter also reported a very significant increase in the number of viewers at their show houses that they perceived to be "serious buyers".

However, it has become interesting, with the agents surveyed simultaneously report a significant lengthening in the average time of homes on the market prior to sale, from a previous 15 weeks and 6 days to the 1st quarter's 19 weeks and 1 day, as well as an increased percentage of sellers having to ultimately drop their asking price to make the sale, from a previous 80% to 85% in the 1st quarter.

This may suggest that stronger demand has not yet led to an improved market balance, possibly because it is being matched by stronger supply of residential stock on the market. The evidence that we have of stronger supply is perhaps not yet solid, but there are signs. For one, our FNB Valuers as a group have on average been giving stronger supply ratings in their valuation reports in recent months.

As for the estate agents, after an increase in the percentage of survey respondents reporting "stock issues" (constraints) from late-2009 and through the winter of 2010, that percentage declined noticeably in the summer 2010/11 quarters, i.e. the 4th quarter of 2010 and the 1st quarter of 2011.

In addition, when examining the various reasons for selling, we sense that there is evidence of improved supply of stock coming to the market too. The evidence lies in the fact that agents have reported an increase in the percentage of what we call "selling for non-negative reasons". These reasons are "selling in order to downscale due to life stage (e.g. retirement or kids leaving home), selling in order to upgrade, selling in order to re-locate to elsewhere in SA (mostly for better job opportunities), and selling in order to move closer to work or amenities.

We believe that a greater portion of such categories of sellers are not in a rush to sell, compared to those selling in order to downscale due to financial pressure for instance, and thus are possibly more willing to bide their time, coming out of the woodwork in larger numbers when they perceive it to be a relatively good time to sell. Recently, a significant increase in sellers selling for "non-negative" reasons suggests to us that there has perhaps been an improvement in the confidence that sellers have in their ability to get their price, bringing an increased number of aspirant sellers out of their hiding places.

This apparent development on the supply side is all part of the long residential market healing process. One should expect that, after an improvement in demand there should at some stage be an improvement in seller confidence as well.

However, this event would also serve to slow the pace of return to a better market balance, with a better market balance ultimately being reflected in a significantly shorter average time of properties on the market along with a smaller percentage of sellers having to drop their asking price.

It would also be likely to delay the return of respectable growth to house prices. Such is the long slow nature of the residential property market recoveries - patience required.